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Grey Belt & Housing Supply Intelligence · England

Where should you promote land?

We screened all 296 English councils for the pressures that make land promotable — housing under-delivery, weak plans, Green Belt constraint and the new grey belt route. Find any council in seconds.

296 councils · Housing Delivery Test + Green Belt + grey belt, on the December 2024 NPPF. Indicative, not advice.

296 councils screened20 primary-source verified 176 Green Belt authoritiesNPPF Dec 2024 · checked vs gov.uk Appeal decisions reviewed
In plain English

Why these opportunities exist

Four things line up to make land promotable. This is the whole story in four steps.

Councils get a target

Government sets each council a yearly housebuilding number (Local Housing Need).

Many miss it

The Housing Delivery Test scores what they actually built. A lot fall well short.

Penalties tilt decisions

Missing the target adds a land "buffer", then a presumption that leans toward approving homes.

Grey belt is the way through

Green Belt normally blocks that tilt — but weak "grey belt" land now has a route to consent.

88
councils must apply a 20% buffer today
60
of those 88, the presumption is engaged
~120
exposed to the July-2026 buffer
88
rated High / Med-High for grey belt

Screening figures from our authority-level model, as at 3 July 2026, built on the Housing Delivery Test 2023, Green Belt statistics 2024-25 and the December 2024 NPPF. Indicative; check the latest council statements before relying on any figure. How it's built.

Live since 1 July 2026

The transitional buffer just changed the map

A new rule (NPPF 78(c)) means councils whose adopted target is well below current need must add a 20% buffer — even if they're building well today. It can tip a council that looked safe into a shortfall overnight.

Brentwood is the clean example: 5.01 years of supply today becomes about 4.39 years under the buffer — below the five-year line. Around 120 councils screen as candidates. The application is arguable case by case, not automatic.

Source: paragraph 78(c), NPPF December 2024, checked against gov.uk.

Why it matters commercially. These are the least obvious opportunities — councils that look fine on delivery but are quietly exposed. Being early, before they publish a revised supply position, is the edge. The full watchlist and the per-council arithmetic are in the report.
The ranking

The strongest opportunities

A weighted 0–100 model across housing pressure, plan weakness, Green Belt constraint and grey belt potential. Here are the top twelve.

The twelve highest-ranked council opportunities
RankCouncilRegionScoreDeliveryGreen BeltGrey belt
1Basildon Borough CouncilEast of England93Presumption63%High
2Hertsmere Borough CouncilEast of England92Presumption79%High
3London Borough of RedbridgeLondon92Presumption34%High
4Elmbridge Borough CouncilSouth East9120% buffer58%High
5Epping Forest District CouncilEast of England89Presumption91%High
6London Borough of HaveringLondon89Presumption54%High
7Dacorum Borough CouncilEast of England8920% buffer50%High
8Bromsgrove District CouncilWest Midlands88Presumption89%High
9St Albans City and District CouncilEast of England88Presumption82%High
10London Borough of BromleyLondon86Presumption51%High
11Sevenoaks District CouncilSouth East86Presumption93%High
12Tonbridge and Malling Borough CouncilSouth East86Presumption71%High

The public score is an indicative weighted screen across housing pressure, plan weakness, Green Belt constraint and grey-belt potential. Weightings and per-council citations are in the full report.

Full report

See all 296 — plus the verified evidence

The public page shows the top twelve. The full report has every council, the 34-column dataset, the ~120-council transitional watchlist, and 20 primary-source deep dives with appeal references. Request it below.

Explore

Your region, your shortlist

Browse the strongest councils in any region, or put two councils side by side.

Top of each region

CouncilScoreDeliveryGrey belt AH

Top eight by opportunity score. "Grey belt AH" is the affordable-housing share the Golden Rules would require there.

Compare two councils

Pick any two — say, where you own land versus the neighbouring authority. The stronger score is highlighted.

Viability

The affordable-housing catch

50%

On a grey-belt scheme, the "Golden Rules" require affordable housing at 15 points above the council's own policy, capped at 50%. We researched all 296 English planning authorities: 286 have a confirmed requirement (the other 10 are recorded as unknown, not guessed) and the median baseline is 33%. The median grey-belt scheme must therefore deliver 48% affordable, and in 140 of the 286 it reaches the full 50% cap.

It's the number to model first. Where a council already sets 45–50% the Golden Rules add nothing; where it sets 20% they add a lot, and that uplift bites hardest in lower-value areas. Figures are authority-level policy baselines; tenure mix and viability are site-specific.

Affordable-housing baselines and grey-belt Golden Rules figures for the top-ranked councils
CouncilLocal baselineOn grey belt
Basildon Borough Council24%50%
Hertsmere Borough Council40%50%
London Borough of Redbridge35%50%
Elmbridge Borough Council40%50%
Epping Forest District Council40%50%
London Borough of Havering35%50%
Dacorum Borough Council35%50%
Bromsgrove District Council40%50%

Top grey-belt opportunities and the affordable % each would require. Full 296-authority tally in the report.

How can we help

Start where you are

I have a site

We run a 48-hour grey-belt and supply screen for your specific parcel — against the Green Belt purposes, the Golden Rules and the live five-year-supply position.

I'm choosing where to promote

Get the full ranked dataset, the transitional-buffer watchlist and the regional picture, so you target the councils where the pressure is strongest.

I need evidence for a case

The 20 deep dives carry quoted five-year-supply figures and appeal references — the material behind a promotion, application or Local Plan representation.

Built to be trusted

Rigorous, sourced, and honest about its limits

Built on the government's own Housing Delivery Test and Green Belt datasets, the standard-method Local Housing Need, and the December 2024 NPPF checked against gov.uk. Twenty councils are verified against their own published statements and appeal decisions. Every figure is tiered by confidence — and we say plainly where the data has gaps.

Important. This is indicative strategic-land intelligence, as at 3 July 2026 — not financial, planning or legal advice, and not any council's formal position. Figures are a snapshot and change as councils publish new statements and adopt plans. A grey belt opportunity is an authority-level screen, not a site-level guarantee; every promotion needs site-specific advice and a check of the underlying citations.
Questions

The five questions everyone asks

What is grey belt land?
Green Belt land that makes only a weak contribution to the Green Belt's purposes — typically previously developed land, or land that does not strongly check sprawl, stop towns merging, or preserve a historic town's setting. Under paragraph 155 of the December 2024 NPPF, homes on grey belt can be "not inappropriate" where the council is under-delivering — so the usual very-special-circumstances hurdle does not apply.
What are the Golden Rules?
For major housing on grey belt or released Green Belt land, affordable housing must be 15 percentage points above the council's own requirement, capped at 50%. The median English council requires 33%, so the median grey-belt scheme must deliver about 48% affordable — the first number to model on any grey-belt site.
What is the Housing Delivery Test?
An annual government score of homes built against homes required over three years. Below 95% the council must publish an action plan; below 85% it must add a 20% buffer to its land supply; below 75% the presumption in favour of sustainable development applies to its decisions — the strongest position an applicant can be in.
What changed on 1 July 2026?
A transitional rule took effect for decision-making: councils whose adopted housing requirement is more than 20% below current local housing need must add a 20% buffer to their five-year supply — even if recent delivery has been good. Around 120 councils screen as candidates, and many do not yet show it in their published positions.
Is this planning advice?
No. It is indicative strategic-land intelligence — a snapshot as at 3 July 2026, not financial, planning or legal advice. It tells you where to look first; any promotion or purchase decision needs site-specific professional advice.